The week of August 19-23, 2024, presented a dynamic landscape for the Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures. As a tech-heavy index, the US100 futures were influenced by broader U.S. economic trends, sector-specific news, and global economic factors. Investor focus was primarily on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and key economic data releases that could either sustain the recent market rally or trigger a pullback.
Fundamental Analysis
Nasdaq 100 futures were buoyed by optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. The Fed’s recent commentary had hinted at possible easing measures due to cooling inflation, with the July CPI data showing inflation stabilizing at 2.9% year-over-year. Retail sales in the U.S. also exceeded expectations, underscoring the resilience of the consumer sector, particularly in technology and electronics. However, concerns about global growth, notably from China, where PMI data indicated economic contraction, acted as a counterbalance to the bullish sentiment.
The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium was a focal point for market participants, as any new insights into the Fed’s stance on interest rates could significantly impact the tech sector, which is highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy.
Technical Analysis
Technically, US100 futures demonstrated strength throughout the week, with key support levels identified near 19,700-19,750 and resistance around the 20,000 mark.The market’s ability to hold above these support levels suggested a strong underlying bullish sentiment. However, technical oscillators indicated that the futures were nearing overbought territory, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback if no new bullish catalysts emerged.
Moving averages, particularly the 50-day moving average, provided immediate support, while the longer-term trend remained positive as long as prices stayed above the 200-day moving average.
Outlook
The outlook for the US100 futures remains cautiously optimistic for the coming weeks. Much of the market’s direction will depend on the outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium and any signals regarding future monetary policy. A dovish tone from the Fed could drive further gains in the tech sector, pushing Nasdaq futures higher. Conversely, any hawkish surprises could trigger a downside correction. Global economic risks, particularly from China and Europe, remain a key concern for investors moving forward.
Thomas is a market analyst and self trader serving the community with his analysis and educational content from long time. The author has great exposure to different financial markets. He’s well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.
