Introduction
The potential impact of Turkey’s membership of the BRICS+ on the global economy can be analysed from a number of angles: geopolitical, commercial, financial and monetary. This group, initially made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, was designed to bring together emerging economies with the potential to rival the developed economies, particularly those of the G7. By integrating Turkey, a country at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, the BRICS+ would gain in economic and geopolitical influence, which could lead to a redistribution of global economic dynamics.
Strengthening the geopolitical influence of the BRICS+
Turkey’s membership of the BRICS+ would first and foremost strengthen the bloc’s geopolitical influence. Turkey is a strategic player at regional and global level thanks to its unique geographical position at the crossroads of trade routes between Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. It is also a member of NATO and has important economic relations with the European Union (EU), which could provide a diplomatic bridge between the BRICS+ and the West.
The increased geopolitical influence of the BRICS+, with Turkey as a member, could lead to a rebalancing of international relations and economic alliances, particularly in terms of trade and investment. This would enable the BRICS+ to increase their bargaining power with global economic organisations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the WTO, and further challenge the economic hegemony of the US and the EU.
Diversification of markets and supply chains
Turkey’s integration into the BRICS+ would also open up new opportunities for international trade and the diversification of supply chains. Turkey has a relatively diversified industrial sector, particularly in the automotive, textile, agri-food and construction sectors, which could benefit from increased access to the markets of other BRICS+ members.
This diversification would be particularly important in a context of trade tensions between the United States, China and the European Union. Turkey’s accession could encourage the development of new South-South trade routes, boosting intra-BRICS+ trade. At the same time, Turkey could offer easier access to Europe for BRICS member countries, strengthening their presence on that continent and integrating them further into global value chains.
Impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows
Turkey’s accession could change the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to and from the BRICS+. Turkey, as an attractive FDI destination, could attract capital from other BRICS members for infrastructure, technology and energy projects. In return, Turkey could use its trade relations and construction expertise to invest in infrastructure in BRICS member countries, particularly in Africa and Central Asia.
In addition, this integration could encourage partnerships between BRICS+ companies and Turkish companies, thereby stimulating cross-border investment. This would offer BRICS companies a gateway to the EU, via Turkey, and give Turkey access to key markets in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
Monetary and financial policy developments
One of the stated aims of the BRICS is to reduce their dependence on the US dollar for international transactions. Turkey’s entry could accelerate this process by strengthening monetary cooperation between members and developing alternatives to the Western-dominated financial system.
Turkey could benefit from this cooperation by diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and reducing its dependence on the dollar, which could strengthen its long-term economic stability. In addition, Turkey’s accession could encourage the use of local currencies in intra-BRICS trade, which would contribute to the gradual de-dollarisation of world trade. The introduction of alternative payment systems and new reserve currencies (such as the Chinese yuan or a possible BRICS common currency) could also weaken the dollar’s dominance in international trade.
Strengthening energy cooperation
Turkey is a major energy hub, linking oil and gas producers in the Middle East and the Caspian Sea to European markets. Its integration into the BRICS+ could lead to closer cooperation in the energy field, notably with Russia, one of the world’s leading suppliers of natural gas, and with other BRICS+ members such as Saudi Arabia, recently admitted to the bloc.
This energy cooperation could strengthen the position of the BRICS+ in the global energy sector, by increasing their control over the supply and price of energy resources. It could also intensify competition with the major Western powers in the management of energy routes and global energy partnerships. Turkey, as a key energy corridor, could play a strategic role in this new dynamic.
Consequences for relations with the European Union and the United States
Turkey’s integration into the BRICS+ could also have significant consequences for its relations with the European Union (EU) and the United States. Turkey’s membership of a bloc that seeks to challenge the Western-dominated world economic order could complicate its relations with these powers. Tensions with the United States, in particular, could increase, not least because of existing geopolitical differences.
However, it could also give Turkey leverage vis-à-vis the EU, enabling it to diversify its economic alliances and negotiate better terms in its trade relations with Europe. By strengthening its ties with emerging economies, Turkey could increase its economic independence from Western economies.
Overall impact on BRICS+
Turkey’s accession would have a structuring effect on the BRICS+. On the one hand, it would strengthen the group’s diversity, by adding another mid-sized economy to complement the large economies such as China and India. On the other hand, Turkey’s presence could boost intra-BRICS cooperation in trade, investment and technological innovation.
The overall economic weight of the BRICS+ would be strengthened by the addition of Turkey, particularly in terms of GDP, population and energy reserves. By expanding in this way, the BRICS+ could compete more directly with blocs such as the EU or the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the world economic stage.
Conclusion
In short, Turkey’s integration into the BRICS+ could have a considerable impact on the global economy, strengthening the group’s geopolitical position and accelerating the dynamics of global economic rebalancing. As a strategic player, Turkey would help to diversify markets, boost investment flows and promote alternatives to the Western-dominated financial system. In addition to increasing the economic influence of the BRICS+, Turkey’s relations with the EU and the United States could also be altered, while strengthening South-South trade.
Thomas is a market analyst and self trader serving the community with his analysis and educational content from long time. The author has great exposure to different financial markets. He’s well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.
