To track and anticipate U.S. inflation trends, there are several tools, websites, and indicators that financial professionals, economists, and researchers use. These resources allow you to monitor inflationary pressures, government data releases, and key economic reports. Here’s a breakdown:
Best Tools and Websites
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Website: bls.gov
- The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are the two main indicators for tracking inflation. The CPI measures changes in retail prices, while the PPI tracks wholesale price changes.
- The BLS provides detailed inflation reports and historical data.
- The CPI Calculator tool allows users to measure inflation over time for any given basket of goods.
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) by St. Louis Fed
- Website: fred.stlouisfed.org
- FRED offers real-time and historical data on many economic indicators, including CPI, PPI, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which the Federal Reserve watches closely.
- You can visualize inflation trends, track data releases, and set up alerts for key indicators.
- The platform also includes tools like customizable charts and economic forecasts.
- Trading Economics
- Website: tradingeconomics.com
- Offers real-time data, charts, and forecasts on key U.S. inflation metrics, including CPI and PPI.
- It also provides inflation expectations data, alongside government bond yields and other leading indicators.
- You can also access inflation forecasts and compare with historical data.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Website
- Website: federalreserve.gov
- The Fed’s actions are closely tied to inflation. Their reports, press conferences, and meeting minutes can provide insights into inflation expectations.
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases statements that directly impact inflation expectations, particularly when discussing interest rates and monetary policy.
- Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) includes the Fed’s inflation forecasts, which are key for anticipating future trends.
- Bloomberg and Reuters
- Website: bloomberg.com | reuters.com
- These financial news outlets provide in-depth analysis, real-time updates, and reports on inflation trends.
- They offer coverage of key economic data releases and expert opinions on how these releases will affect markets and inflation expectations.
Key Indicators to Follow
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Published monthly by the BLS, the CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is especially important because it filters out volatile components and gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Also released monthly by the BLS, PPI measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
- This is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, as rising producer costs often lead to higher consumer prices.
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
- Published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
- The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation trends and decide on monetary policy.
- Inflation Breakeven Rates (TIPS Spread)
- Found on the FRED website and in financial news outlets, the breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the yields of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and regular Treasury bonds. This rate reflects the market’s inflation expectations.
- A rising breakeven rate indicates increasing inflation expectations.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI)
- The ECI, published by the BLS, measures the growth in wages and benefits. If wages rise significantly, inflation may follow as businesses raise prices to cover higher labor costs.
- ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI Prices Paid
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases reports on the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. The Prices Paid component measures the rate of change in input prices.
- This is a leading indicator of inflation as increasing prices for raw materials and inputs often lead to higher consumer prices.
- University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
- This survey measures consumer sentiment and inflation expectations over the short and long term.
- It is an important gauge because consumers’ inflation expectations can influence future inflation, especially if they begin to demand higher wages or alter their spending habits in response to expected price increases.
- Energy Prices (Crude Oil and Natural Gas)
- Energy prices have a strong impact on inflation, as higher oil prices lead to higher transportation and production costs, which can eventually be passed on to consumers.
- Keep an eye on global crude oil prices via sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) or financial news platforms.
Other Tools and Platforms
- Economic Calendar Tools: Websites like Investing.com, MarketWatch, and ForexFactory provide economic calendars that highlight upcoming inflation data releases and other important economic indicators. These tools are helpful for tracking the exact dates of CPI, PPI, and Fed announcements.
Conclusion
Monitoring U.S. inflation involves tracking a combination of price indices (CPI, PPI, PCE), market-based expectations (TIPS, breakeven rates), and reports on wages, production costs, and consumer sentiment. Using tools like FRED, the BLS, and news platforms such as Bloomberg or Reuters will provide you with real-time insights and forecasts for future inflation trends.
Thomas is a market analyst and self trader serving the community with his analysis and educational content from long time. The author has great exposure to different financial markets. He’s well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.
